random memes }

$$ Inertia in markets

One common element in the prior observations on The "AOL of broadband" and OASIS Office Document Standards is the surprising amount of inertia (resistance to change) displayed by the marketplace. The AOL subscriber base continued to grow long after the service no longer made sense. Microsoft continues to collect $billions$ in revenue when buying new copies of Microsoft Office no longer really makes any sense.

The market did finally move away from AOL. We can presume the market will eventually(!) figure out that new versions of MSWord are not worth the price. The only guess is how long...

Heh - my guess - based on the assumption that Microsoft Office sales are still increasing (true or not?): three more years for a MSOffice sales to stall, five years for a significant drop, and ten years before sales become nearly insignificant (assuming Microsoft does not change pricing).