Dreaming of Dynabooks

Where we came from.. Back in 1980, Alan Kaye published a paper describing the idea of a Dynabook. The Dynabook was a portable computer with a wireless network connection. Remember that at this time personal computers often came as kits. Pretty far out stuff. Today's notebook PC's are pretty close. What's more the technologies are arriving to make the Dynabook a mainstream reality. What we have... Wireless Internet connections are available (but see #1 below). Today's Notebook PC's are (mostly) good enough (but see #2 and #3 below). Where we far short... Wireless Internet connections are too slow, too expensive, and too limited. Notebooks are too expensive and become obsolete too quickly. Notebook displays are too small (and too expensive). I would like to suggest a change in terminology. The big noisy boxes you plug into the wall are home or office computers. A personal computer is something you carry with you everywhere you go, and often forget that you have (how often do you think about a telephone). The solutions to make the truly personal computer a reality are almost here. The way things are shaping up, history may record the year 2000 as when personal computers started to achieve widespread use. Also known as... Separately none of this is new. Check out "Ubiquitous Computing" (and probably others). Lots of interest in this area, but I don't believe even those interested have put together all the implications.

On the other hand... Just when the technology is falling into place to make a full Dynabook a reality, the there are clues that the future may turn out just a little different. Get rid of the screen... Notebook screens are too small, fragile, and expensive. Ideally you would like a desk-sized display surface - but you don't want to carry one around. Years ago in a project class at UCI we dreamed about display surfaces like paper, that you could cut to size and hang around your office. In retrospect that was a silly idea, because while you need to see the display, the display surface does not need to physically exist! Take a wearable high resolution HUD (heads up display) and in a sense invert the "virtual reality" idea. Think of the real world as a virtual display surface. Wearing your personal computer and walking through the real world, you will get an enhanced reality. Look out the window and "see" the outside temperature and weather report. Walk through a factory, look at a piece of equipment and "see" the current status operating status. Look at a shelf in a warehouse and "see" the current inventory. Look at a wall in your office and "see" a window through which your software development environment is visible (clearly I write software :-). Personal computers rarely become obsolete... Notebooks become obsolete when the requirements of new software outgrow what will fit in the machine. So don't run heavyweight software of your personal computer. Instead use your home or office computer over a network connection. This gets us off the complusive upgrade cycle, narrows the range of requirements for personal computers (allowing greater manufacturing economy and lower inital costs) and radically cuts long term costs. You will be much more likely to upgrade your home or office computer (which will always be less expensive as it need not be small or power efficient). Desktop computers will (mostly) disappear... This is a bit longer term (say 10 to 20 years out) but expect home/office computers to be mostly headless - lacking either display or keyboard. Or more accurately lacking an attached display or keyboard, as any nearby personal computer can serve...

Pieces to the puzzle	When available?	Notes
Powerful portable computers	Now!	A computer both sufficiently powerful of mainstream use, yet small and light enough to be portable.
Wireless networks	Now...10 years	Full time LAN class connection speeds everywhere.
Cheap small "virtual" displays	Now...5 years	Check out DisplayTech for one