Once again I am hosting the local polling place. This my precinct tends to be deeply conservative. There are lots of Republicans and very few Democrats. In some elections the Republican candidate lost out (locally) to a third party candidate, but rarely to a Democrat. Perhaps "conservative" is the wrong label. Might be that "libertarian" is a better fit. When Chris Cox was plucked out of the Senate to chair the SEC, local voters went for Jim Gilchrist over the (intensely boring) replacement offered by the Republican party.
This election is different. There are quite a number of former Republicans changing to non-partisan or Democrat - which for this area is amazing. No prior election has been anything alike (and I've been doing this for ten years).
If this area is so strongly affected, the Republican party is in very deep trouble.